The rumblings of discontent in Northern Nigeria have continued to elicit discussions about the region’s political fortune, which its people say is unfavourable and will be the deciding factor on whether they will support President Bola Tinubu in 2027.
The Northern region, which boasts the most population in the country, is therefore already signaling to the President that its people will not forget to dish out retaliation where necessary.
The North will therefore put a big question mark over Tinubu’s chances in 2027. This is as the people there say that the President has been examined and found wanting.…CONTINUE READING
Thus, like the epic television series, The Game of thrones, which aired on HBO and captivated millions of viewers around the world, Tinubu must appease Nigeria’s version of “House Stark of Winterfell” as he eyes “The Iron Throne”, in this case, the Presidency.
House Stark is the family of rulers in the North of Westeros, a fictional continent, who have a motto that says they do not forget good or evil deeds done to them.
The ruling house also always maintains that no matter how long it takes, the repayment of such “debt”, as they call it, will be inevitable. And scarily enough, they are not slow to keep their vows.
This then brings us back to Northern Nigeria. In the last nine years minus one, one of their sons, Muhammadu Buhari, ran the affairs of the country as President. He is also still in the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress.
“The North is a formidable force in the polity and any miscalculation will irreversibly affect the President’s chances of winning a second term in office”
Despite Buhari putting a heavy burden on the economy and social life, many Northerners, most of the time, had somehow pretended not to see or hear any evil during his “calamitous” government.
Be that as it may, to Buhari’s credit, suicide bombing, which was a regular feature in the North during the administration of Buhari’s predecessor, Goodluck Jonathan of the People’s Democratic Party, was subdued, and a bit of safety restored up north.
Of course, there were bombings here and there during Buhari’s first term in office, but the dastardly act gradually fizzled out during his second term as President from 2019 to 2023.
Tinubu took over on May 29, 2023, but on June 29, 2024 in Gwoza, Borno State, a hotbed of terror attacks, calamity struck afresh. Three female suicide bombers unleashed terror in coordinated suicide attacks that claimed the lives of at least 30 people and injured many others.
Although some experts have attributed the attack, the first in nearly five years, to the degrading of Boko Haram insurgents and their inability to carry out conventional attacks, there is fear in some quarters of 2027 being responsible.
And why not? Analysts say that power-crazed individuals in the North know all about the chaos insecurity can cause. They also know that apart from corruption, insecurity can show a sitting President the exit door.
On the political front, Northern politicians, including those who are thought to be sworn enemies, have started to hold secret and open meetings and there are those who say that how power will change hands in 2027 is of paramount importance.
Already, the immediate past Governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai, has met with the candidate of the New Nigeria People’s Party in last year’s presidential election, Rabiu Kwankwaso.
Kwankwaso, a proud politician known for his stout opinion on pressing national issues, visited El-Rufai at his Abuja residence. Those who adduced reasons for the visit said it was for the sake of power and the quest to resuscitate old ties.
That said, many Nigerians are still at a loss why El-Rufai, a member of the APC, deemed it necessary to get a photo op with an opposition politician.
The same El-Rufai was with Tinubu at Chatham House in the United Kingdom during the last electioneering campaign and the President even listed him among those in his team who would answer some questions on his behalf.
El-Rufai left the scene after the Senate thumbed down his ministerial confirmation. His opponents say he is still piqued by that.
The former Kaduna State Governor has also met Buhari in Daura, Katsina State. He also met with the State Governor, Dikko Radda, and the Emir of Daura, Farouk Umar.
Another Northern politician and flag bearer of the PDP in 2023, Atiku Abubakar, has also met with influential Northerners, such as Buhari and former military Heads of State, Ibrahim Babangida and Abdulsalam Abubakar.
As things stand, political observers are now waiting to see whether the stars will align, and this is if a fortuitous meeting between Atiku and El-Rufai is held, because, as they say, there are no permanent friends or enemies in politics.
In addition to all the potential headaches accruable to Tinubu, the North has also been crying out about alleged marginalisation of the region by the President. They also point an accusing finger at the President for denying them key government positions in his government.
It was because of marginalisation the spokesperson of the Northern Elders’ Forum, Abdulaziz Sulaiman, said the North made a mistake in voting Tinubu to the presidency in 2023 and that it was unlikely that they would repeat the same error in the future.
Sulaiman also said that the North has learned from their past “misstep” and would strive to select a (new) candidate who could unite the country and govern in the best interests of all Nigerians.
Aside from the NEF, the North East Governors’ Forum also accused Tinubu’s Federal Government of neglecting the region in the provision of capital projects.
The forum’s chairman, Borno State Governor, Babagana Zulum, said road and rail connections between the South East and North East had been abandoned. He also bemoaned the blackout in the region.
In the same vein, Northerners have accused the President of appointing mostly Southerners into key government positions, and the Convener of Northern Democratic Alliance, Hamisu Gombe, took his own accusations a notch higher.
According to Gombe, Tinubu has a well-articulated plan to weaken the North socially, politically, and economically so as to make it (the North) unable to challenge him in 2027.
An Enugu-based political analyst, Maxwell Igwe, said the President should not take any accusation lightly even though the Minister of State for Defence, Bello Matawalle, had called Northerners, who accused Tinubu of marginalisation, political featherweights.
Igwe said furthermore that Tinubu had to be concerned more with insecurity than with the politicians holding meetings in the region.
“I understand that one of Tinubu’s ministers had called these noisemakers from the North political featherweights, but the President must not take their accusations lightly.
“The North is a formidable force in the polity and any miscalculation will irreversibly affect the President’s chances of winning a second term in office.
“I do not even fear for the President that a pained politician such as El-Rufai is meeting every Tom, Dick and Harry.
“What I am concerned about is insecurity. Left unattended, it can turn the people against you in a hurry. The President must look into suicide attacks and find ways to address it. That is where the real work is if he wants the North by his side in 2027.”
Another Nigerian, Muyiwa Bello, said, “It is amazing that the North is crying out over marginalisation and some of them want to stop the President in 2027.
“Well, stopping the President is possible. The North can actually stop the President especially if he goes to sleep.
“And did they really say marginalisation? No wonder we learned that they (the North) made the Presidency their birthright. So, when they are not at the helm of affairs, the next thing they will say is marginalisation.
“As for insecurity, I remember vividly what it did to Jonathan. It made a mess of Goodluck. Tinubu must wake up and address all the problems; else the problems will make him insignificant in 2027.”
-thepointng
