…To Defeat TINUBU In 2027 Elections
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has spent exactly a year and 8 months in office. It has been nothing less than a tumultous 20 months in power for the man who cared to tell anyone that listened at the time that, ‘Emilokan.’ His score card so far, like everything else about Tinubu, elicits diverse opinions and conclusions. If you ask Nigerians today to tell you what they think about the President’s performance, what you will get will be a cacophony of reactions.
Many will tell you he’s been an absolute disappointment with his economic reforms that they believe have subjected majority of Nigerians to the unprecedented hunger that is now ravaging the land, while some others hold a clearly contrasting opinion....CONTINUE READING
They believe the President’s decision to terminate the fuel subsidy was a step in the right direction as other presidential aspirants themselves at the time also stated that if they won the presidential election, subsidy would go! This group of Nigerians also insist that the President’s reforms, though strangulating, are starting to yield dividends and discerning Nigerians are starting to see where the President is headed with his reforms.
The three major opposition leaders, namely Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, Peter Obi of the Labour Party and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the NNPP do not share the sentiments of those who believe President Bola Tinubu’s reforms are yielding results. If anything, they insist it has further plunged the nation into deeper economic shambles and took our poverty indices to an all time high. Some have said that if a presidential election was to be conducted today, President Bola Tinubu would lose because, according to them, the Nigerian people are disenchanted with him and they would gladly vote him out of power if they had their way.
To supporters of Peter Obi popularly known as the obidients and supporters of Atiku Abubakar, as far as they are concerned, Tinubu’s 2nd term bid is dead on arrival. They say either Peter Obi or Atiku will beat Tinubu hands down come 2027 when Nigerians go to the polls again to decide who their next president should be. But some political pundits who owe the President no allegiance claim these are nothing but empty words, that it will be very difficult, if not totally impossible, for either Atiku or Obi, to defeat Tinubu in 2027. And they have come up with some very strong arguments to back up their claims.
“Those who say the President will lose re-election come 2027 either do not understand politics or are simply blinded by their loyalty to their presidential flag bearer,” one of the political analysts who hails from the northern part of country said to City People. ‘To begin with, every honest Nigerian can see that things are starting to fall into place for the President. People are starting to see the little progress made by the government. There has been a gradual decrease in the price of fuel and this has enabled some stability in the prices of food stuff in the market.
The prices of items are no longer skyrocketing like they were doing months ago. And also, with the floating of the naira, the economy appears much stronger. The government has been able to use monies that would’ve gone into fuel subsidy to increase revenue allocations to states and provide road infrastructure and other social amenities that Nigerians need. And even kidnapping and banditry that was a major source for concern seems to have greatly abated.
This President knows what he’s doing and I am almost certain that before the end of this year, there will great improvements in the economy. And what that means is that Nigerians will begin to sing a different song from 2025 to 2027 when another presidential election will take place. There will no longer be all this hue and cry about hunger in the land. So, what do you now think will happen when we go to the polls again to vote in 2027? Will the people not vote for the man that has taken the country out of the woods?”
For the supporters of Peter Obi and Atiku, the above analysis does not hold water. They insist that Nigerians want a new president and it has to be either Peter Obi or Atiku Abubakar. But some Nigerians think it will be almost impossible for any of these two politicians to dislodge Tinubu from the seat of power.
Apart from the fact that things are beginning to fall into place for the President Bola Tinubu led administration, there is nothing coming from the opposition camps that shows that they are ready for the 2027 presidential elections. To begin with, both opposition parties, the PDP and Labour Party, are in disarray at the moment. The Labour party is embroiled in leadership crisis that appears to be deepening with each passing day, while the PDP is yet to get itself out of the mess bequeathed to it by the Nyesom Wike led G-5 which helped Tinubu secure millions of votes in some key states, including winning in Rivers during the last presidential elections.
In fact, as it is, Peter Obi does not even know yet on which platform he intends to run come 2027 because it is highly unlikely that he won’t leave the Labour Party as a result of the myriads of crises plaguing the party. And in the event that he chooses to stay with the party and contest the 2027 presidential election on the party’s platform, a party that lacks a national structure strong enough to help him win, what miracle is he then hoping for? It was this same lack of party structure that worked against him the last time.
The Labour Party didn’t have agents spread across all the polling booths where elections were held in all the 774 local governments in the country. This was a major problem for Peter Obi at the last elections and it will still be a big problem because nothing has changed yet. It takes massive funding for a party to have agents represent it across the nation and the issue of funding is still a major issue bedevelling the Labour Party till this very moment..
For the PDP, the story is not any better. Every passing day, we read about hundreds of members of the PDP dumping the party for the APC. At the House of Reps, the Senate, PDP members are leaving the party for the ruling party. Even now, it is being rumoured that some PDP governors will soon leave the party for the APC. The crisis within the party is not looking anything near being resolved. PDP is getting weaker and losing its appeal. Nigerians have become disenchanted with the PDP, they no longer talk about the PDP with the passion they talked about it many years ago.
The fact that Atiku Abubakar is a Northerner is also a factor that will work against him because of the geopolitics the country gives significant consideration when it comes to who becomes the President. There is an unwritten agreement that allows the rotation of power amongst the major geographical regions. This was what worked largely against Atiku the last time. Buhari, a Muslim northerner, had just finished eight years in power, and Atiku, another northern Muslim, wanted to take over power from him. This was the grouse the G-5 led by Nyesom Wike had against him. It didn’t work for him in 2023, it still cannot work for him in 2027. The understanding is that whichever region is in power would be allowed to do its full term of eight years. Tinubu, a southerner, has to be allowed to finish his eight years which will take him to 2031.
Hear Dr. Doyin Okupe, former Director-General of Peter Obi Presidential Campaign: “Atiku failed in 2023, not because he was not a good person but because people felt that a northern Muslim cannot succeed another northern Muslim after 8 years.
“If Atiku still contests in 2027, he has a right. He is eminently qualified, and one of the best we have. But geopolitics is an issue.
“The conditionality still persists. A Southerner would have just completed four years and needs another four-year term.
“It’s not in the constitution, but we agree that when a northerner does his 8 years, a southerner will also do the same.
“So, the North cannot now terminate the tenure of the South in 2027. It is not going to work,” Okupe said.
There is also the talk of a possible merger between Atiku and Obi. Many believe that, unlike in 2023 when Atiku and Peter Obi pursued their individual aspirations and ultimately worked at cross purposes, allowing the Tinubu emerge President, if the two come together in 2027, the results might be different. They will dislodge President Tinubu, they say. The idea looks good on paper. The two of them will actually make a formidable pair. But the question is, who steps down for whom to allow the other become the presidential candidate?
When asked what he thinks about the possibility of an Atiku/Obi merger defeating President Tinubu come 2027, Doyin Okupe had this to say:
“I have been in this game for 40 years and above. I came into politics in 1978. I have been in several talks and discussions. I have represented my party and my movement in several alliances.
“We have not attained that maturity to get to the level of being rational and reasonable and ready to give the necessary concession for a group interest. We are not there yet.
“Even if you look at our private businesses; go and check, 90 per cent of business partnership will crumble within the first three years.
“I wish those who are trying alliances luck, but it is going to end up the same way it has always ended up. All the alliances will end up in futility,” Okupe said.
Assessing the alliance that brought ex-President Muhammadu Buhari to power in 2015, the former presidential spokesman noted that though he criticised the alliance, the leader of the alliance, Tinubu, conceded everything to make it work.
“The man who spearheaded that alliance has grown beyond this constitution of naivety and selfishness.
“You put up an alliance, you set up a dining table, you cook food, and say other people should go and eat it. It is not done anywhere.
“He conceded everything so that the thing could work,” Okupe said.
He expressed doubt in the readiness and willingness of opposition leaders, like Alhaji Atiku Abubakar (PDP), Peter Obi (LP), and Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso (NNPP) mulling alliance against President Tinubu in 2027 to concede for one another.
“If you look at it very well, that kind of maturity does not exist,” he insisted.
Many political analysts believe President Tinubu already has a very firm grip of the nation’s political system. He is already making incursions into the east where he recorded his lowest performances during the last election by taking deliberate steps to appease the Igbos who clearly did not vote for him 2023. His appointment of Bianca Ojukwu as Minister of state for Foreign Affairs has been seen as a political master stroke by many. There’s no gainsaying many Igbos are extremely pleased with the appointment.
The appointment of Dave Umahi as Minister of Works, one of the biggest ministeries in the land, also impressed many Igbos. Also, the South-East Development Commission, set up to help the south east develop many of its regions devastated during the civil war, has brought joy to many Igbo elites. This is something no government granted them until President Tinubu came.
But the one that has left many shocked is the President’s official visit to Enugu State last weekend. The outpouring of affection and support showed by the people of Enugu has left many talking ever since. It was unbelievable to see Igbos by the road side singing the praises of Tinubu.
According to a top chieftain of the APC, “what this simply means is that the voting pattern in the east come 2027 will be very different this time. And if that happens, this means Peter Obi may not have the sort of landslide victories he enjoyed in the east like he did in 2023. Already, a lot of Labour Party chieftains and members are leaving the party in droves for the APC.
Another big master stroke scored by President Tinubu is the autonomy granted local governments. What this means is that local governments can now receive their allocations directly from the Federation Account Allocation Committee. And, ultimately, it means that the governors will no longer have control over the funds of the local governments and in effect, local government chairmen will no longer be answerable to the state governors.
Reno Omokri explained the implication of the Autonomy granted the 774 local governments in the country.
Hear him: “This has led to a thinking throughout the 774 Local Governments across Nigeria that if Tinubu does not return in 2027, their newfound autonomy, and the cash it brings to the grassroots will go with it.
In essence, their survival is now tied to Tinubu’s political survival. They are now Siamese twins!
And what a lot of people do not understand is that all politics is local, and hate him or love him, Bola Tinubu understands that.
Therefore, there is a very strong vested interest throughout the Local Government cadre for Tinubu to return. And that is where the votes are.
Forget about these protests with their highfalutin names, such as Days of Rage and One Million Man March. They are just distractions.
As long as local governments get their allocations directly from the FAAC, no governor will be able to control them effectively. They will have independent thoughts.
And that is why you ought to respect the political sagacity of Bola Tinubu. He has perfected Habit Two of the Seven Habits of Highly Effective People: Begin with the end in mind.
His potential rivals in 2027, especially those in the Peoples Democratic Party, should reassure LGAs, if not Tinubu may coast easily to victory.
This local government autonomy was well thought out, which is probably why it was the President’s priority. In pure political calculation, it buys him the loyalty of 774 LGA Chairmen, who are the Goose that lays the Golden Egg.
And as long as LGA Chairmen continue to collect their allocations directly and governors continue to grumble, the third tier of government will see Tinubu as a champion they cannot do without.
If you ask me if Tinubu can be defeated in 2027, I will say yes, but it will be a very difficult and uphill task. Why? Tinubu understands the game and plans for the future, whereas politicians like Peter Obi and others like him only react to circumstances.”
– WALE LAWAL, Citypeople
