The Western world’s most successful political party is steeling itself for a second electoral wipeout in 10 months.
Pollsters are widely predicting Britain’s Conservative Party will lose hundreds of councillors in next week’s local elections as millions of Brits go to the polls.
This would mean that, despite an unpopular Labour government polling at historically low numbers, the Tories are likely to become the biggest loser on May 1 thanks to Britain’s local council electoral cycle.
Pollsters are widely predicting Britain’s Conservative Party will lose hundreds of councillors in next week’s local elections as millions of Brits go to the polls.
This would mean that, despite an unpopular Labour government polling at historically low numbers, the Tories are likely to become the biggest loser on May 1 thanks to Britain’s local council electoral cycle.
It comes after the Tories crashed to their worst general election performance in modern history in July as the party, under Rishi Sunak’s stewardship, was booted out of power by Keir Starmer’s Labour after 14 years.
But while the party’s MPs and apparatchiks were in despair in the lead-up to last year’s general election, there appears to be a sense of begrudging acceptance this time around.
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has been spending the past week heavily managing expectations, telling the BBC last week that the elections will be “very difficult for the Conservatives.”
Despite this, MPs from all wings of the party say there is no appetite to cause problems for Badenoch or to seriously question her position.
However, some party figures believe Badenoch will now need to show serious progress over the next 12 months if she is to consolidate her position — and navigate the threat of a leadership challenge.
One former Tory MP involved in election planning, granted anonymity to speak freely like others in this piece, said Badenoch’s colleagues want to be seen to give her a fair chance — but that she would soon come under pressure “to be less useless.”
They said the real “danger point” would be the Conservatives falling behind Reform at next year’s local elections, particularly in the Welsh Senedd.
“If indeed she makes it that far,” the ex-MP added.
Growing pains
There is broad recognition in Westminster that Badenoch inherited the Tory throne in less-than-propitious circumstances last November.
The party had just suffered a landslide defeat, its coffers were bare, and the public was tired of hearing from them after years of Tory psychodrama.
However, the biggest immediate challenge she faces is the rise of Nigel Farage’s populist right-wing Reform UK. Reform outperformed expectations in the general election after riding a wave of anti-establishment sentiment and public backlash against soaring legal and illegal immigration figures under the Conservatives.
But the loss of support to Reform on Badenoch’s right flank has only accelerated under her leadership, with Farage’s party now consistently polling above the Tories. POLITICO’s poll of polls shows Reform is averaging 25 percent, Labour is on 24 percent and Tories are on 21 percent.
And while this puts Badenoch in touching distance of Labour, some in her party believe this is a disappointing effort considering the near-disastrous first six months in government for Starmer.
“She’s really struggling to find the right issues to attack the government on or to lead the political conversation,” said a Tory figure. “Contrast this to Farage, who is able to get ahead of big political moments and set the running — like on steel nationalization.”
Badenoch has also attracted criticism for being unable to truly land blows on the government’s economic performance, particularly as the U.K.’s growth forecasts began to crater after November’s tax-raising budget.
A recent Ipsos poll also put her personal approval rating as -26, which was well below both Starmer and Farage.
Despite her early struggles, it is these local elections that may be the nadir of Badenoch’s young leadership.
The worst is yet to come
The Tories hold the vast majority of the 1,641 seats up for grabs next week, after the party’s strong performance in 2021, when they were last contested. This was because then Prime Minister Boris Johnson was riding high in the polls thanks to a swell of voter satisfaction over the U.K.’s speedy rollout of the COVID vaccine.
The success was so stark that it moved many pundits to remark that Johnson was a certainty to stay in power for many more years — before he spectacularly self-immolated over the next 12 months and was forced from office by his own MPs.
Now, with the Conservatives at such a low polling ebb, they are expected to be blown away and lose hundreds of seats next week.
One of Badenoch’s shadow ministers predicted it would “be one of our worst election results ever,” as “we’re comparing one of our best-ever points in election history to one of our worst-ever points in election history.”
“It’s pretty clear the public are annoyed and upset, and I don’t think they’re listening to us,” they said. Still, this shadow minister believed Badenoch could turn things around.
“People need to trust us again, that’s Kemi’s big job, and she’s got a lot of time. I think there’s a real acknowledgement that what killed us more than anything else was infighting, and the public don’t want to see that.”
One Conservative Party grandee said the situation was far more severe.
They said Badenoch must begin “to move the [polling] numbers” this year and that “all bets are off” if she doesn’t turn things around by May 2026.
Pollster and Conservative peer Robert Hayward was also less positive about how much time Badenoch had to improve her situation in the eyes of her party.
“The real time for her, in terms of decisions for the Tory Party, will be in a year’s time at the 2026 locals,” Hayward said.
“She’ll have been in office for a year in a half … and people will begin to take a judgment from this year’s party conference onwards.”
Holding it all together
In the meantime, Tory officials and MPs say Badenoch’s big job is to just maintain unity within the party.
A shadow Cabinet minister said the electorate won’t want to listen to anything Badenoch says before 2027 and that the key measure of success “between now and then is unity.”
“Recent events, like on the Supreme Court judgment on single-sex spaces, show she is making sound judgments and will bring the party along with her,” they added.
This may be made somewhat more difficult by the decision to cut scores of jobs at the party’s campaign headquarters in the wake of widely reported financial difficulties.
Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ) is now significantly smaller than when Badenoch took over, and she has told party staff that they must “do better” or face the sack.
This may have had adverse effects on this local election campaign.
One staffer described the CCHQ campaign team as “a mess,” noting that in addition to a recent round of redundancies, several senior team members are due to leave in May.
One Tory official said “a lot of different parts of the party have had their crisis moments since the election, and the grassroots will find these set of local elections very difficult and disheartening.”
Badenoch also has a growing problem on her frontbench as rumors continue to grow about Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick’s own leadership ambitions.
Jenrick, who was defeated in last year’s leadership contest, has begun to opine on a vast range of policy areas that are well beyond his portfolio.
His slick social media videos and upcoming tour of local party association dinners have only further fueled speculation that he is preparing for a leadership challenge should the moment present itself.
And for a party that is steeped in the tradition of carefully managed regicide just as much as it is in winning power, that moment may well present itself by this time next year.
