The chances of President Bola Tinubu returning to office in the 2027 election have been said can still be truncated despite the large number of defections his party has experienced since he resumed office in 2023.
President Tinubu’s All Progressives Congress (APC) has received a large number of defectors from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP) and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) since 2025.
The defectors range from past and current political office holders, including senators, House of Representatives members, making the APC to have have the two-thirds majority in the two chambers of the National Assembly.
In 2025, no fewer than four governors have joined the ruling APC from the PDP. These included Governor Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta, Umo Eno of Akwa Ibom, Peter Mbah of Enugu and Agbu Kefas of Taraba states.
Despite the mass defection, Binzak Azeez, a political commentator, in an exclusive interview with Legit.ng, said that Tinubu can still lose the 2027 election. He explained that the presidential election might not be influenced by any local politics, but by the regional dominance of each presidential candidate.
According to Azeez, Peter Obi is still a voice to reckon with in the southeast. Atiku Abubakar and Rabiu Kwankwaso still have control over a large number of votes in the north. Thus, if the three of them can work together, they would be able to stop Tinubu in 2027.
His statement reads: “At the moment, the massive defection to the ruling APC is not the end of the road to the opposition. In my view, some of the defectors to the ruling party may be prominent but they have less electoral value. The serving senators, the current members of the house of representatives, former opposition political leaders who recently joined the ruling party may likely not significantly influence the 2027 presidential election.
“I am not totally discarding the influence of these prominent politicians. I only feel their local influence in the coming election is being overrated. The factors that currently shape the people’s voting patterns in the presidential election are different from the local elections. The people may decide to vote for the APC in their local election and massively do otherwise in the presidential election.
“Peter Obi remains the face of the Igbo people. Rabiu Kwankwaso has a significant stake in the presidential election. Atiku Abubakar remains a force to be reckoned with in the coming election. If these three politicians work together alongside their political allies, the massive defection would be rendered less effective.”
